Election Deadlock

Australia's Federal election has resulted in deadlock with neither side able to gain a majority in the House of Representatives. This should not surprise us as neither of the major political parties really offered the people a vision for the future, but rather more of the same with a bit of tinkering around the edges.

So what is this "hung Parliament" that we hear so much of?

In our version of Parliamentary democracy, the Government's ministers including the Prime Minister are drawn from the party which has the majority in the House of Representatives. The Prime Minister's party (in the last term this was the Australian Labor Party) can allocate ministers from both the House and the Senate. Although this is the practice, the way it should work is a little less rigid than this, in that it is open for the Prime Minister to appoint anyone from any party to the Cabinet.

With 150 Representatives, a party needs 76 members to form Government. It is unlikely that either party can achieve this. The most likely result is one party will get 73 seats, the other 72 and the Greens have 1 with the remaining 4 members being independent. Of the 4 independents one is not yet certain of election.

To complicate the matter one Liberal member has been replaced by a Nationals member from WA. Normally this is not a problem as the Liberals and Nationals are close friends and form a coalition together. Apparently the WA Nationals are very independent and the newly elected member said he will not be sitting in the Party Room and his vote will not be guaranteed on any issue. Whether he can be pulled into line with the others remains to be seen.

Most of the figures being bandied around in the media are just predictions at this stage as not all votes have been counted and some of the seats could be uncertain for several days. Postal and absentee votes take some days to be included, and as these account for up to 10% of all votes they could be significant in some seats.

All counts are subject to confirmation and any candidate may call for a recount or even dispute the results in the Court of Disputed Returns. Generally there may be quibbling over individual votes, whether a particular ballot paper has been filled out correctly.

So what happens next?

Well rock, scissors, paper could be considered a legitimate way of resolving any deadlock.

At the moment all of the parties are in furious negotiations with the independents trying to gain support. The independents are saying they need to meet together and work out principles for supporting either party, but they will not be voting as a bloc. The three independents already elected are from rural areas which means that they may be able to get some good results for the bush. But what actually emerges depends on personalities, policies and practicalities.

After all of the votes have been counted, certified and declared, the Governor-General will call in the Prime Minister for a cup of coffee and a chat about whether she has the confidence of the Parliament. If the Prime Minister believes that she can win a vote of confidence in the Parliament she will be commissioned to form a government. Alternatively the Opposition Leader will be given that task. In either case, there will be a vote in the Parliament and whoever is to form the Government will have to have the numbers to pass that vote.

The other wild card in all of this is the Senate. To pass any legislation, the Government will have to not only gain the support of the independents in the House of Representatives, they will also have to gain majority support in the Senate. I was surprised to read the the Greens will have 9 members in the 76 member Senate. Basically they have picked up a seat in every state, but a closer look at the results reveals that they have basically picked up seats that normally would go to the Labour Party- but their support for the ALP or their opposition to Liberal legislation cannot be guaranteed.

Strangely the last Victorian Senate seat was picked up by the Democratic Labor Party. This seat was held by Family First Senator Fielding. The DLP are even more conservative than Families First. They were formed in the 1950's in a split in the ALP and were influential until the 1970's when they faded from sight. It seems the party has operated since then, despite having no members in Parliament. It will be interesting to see how they vote on legislation, and whether they actually have any real power.

If it turns out that the Government is unable to form a stable alliance, or if it is just frustrated in its legislative programme, then the Prime Minister is able to go to the Governor-General and ask for an election at any time. This is not likely to be within the first 12 months. Of course, if the Opposition is able to gain the support of the independents for a no-confidence vote while Parliament is sitting, then the roles are reversed.

Some people say this is all a bad thing because it means that government is unstable. I think it's a good thing however as it means that compromises and negotiations will have to be made at every turn. If people act in good faith and for the good of the nation we should get better laws being passed. And if not, then we can always have another go at electing the right combination of parliamentarians.

Interesting times lie ahead!