From Andrew Bolt:
Dr David Stockwell, a leading expert on ecological niche modelling, checked the CSIRO’s figures and assumptions behind its warning of more drought thanks to global warming, and found in fact:
… that the results show no significant increase in drought due to greenhouse warming in almost all regions of Australia
Stockwell’s conclusions were hampered by the CSIRO’s refusal to hand over the data it had used to make its terrifying predictions. Eventually the CSIRO caved in, and Stockwell has since crunched its numbers and found the CSIRO’s models are in fact worthless, not even being able to “predict” past climate:
In a statistical re-analysis of the data from the Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report, all climate models failed standard internal validation tests for regional droughted area in Australia over the last century. The most worrying failure was that simulations showed increases in droughted area over the last century in all regions, while the observed trends in drought decreased in five of the seven regions identified in the CSIRO/Bureau of Meteorology report. Therefore there is no credible basis for the claims of increasing frequency of Exceptional Circumstances declarations made in the report. These results are consistent with other studies finding lack of adequate validation in global warming effects modeling, and lack of skill of climate models at the regional scale.
This corroborates a recent study warning that climate models of the kind actually relied upon by the CSIRO are of no predictive value, given the difference between what they predict and what actually happens:
The results show that models perform poorly, even at a climatic (30-year) scale. Thus local model projections cannot be credible, whereas a common argument that models can perform better at larger spatial scales is unsupported.
And statistician Ian Castles has likewise discovered that the CSIRO seems to be contradicting itself when predicting worse droughts.
In short, Kevin Rudd seized on dud studies, useless models and contradictory findings to whip up global warming fears when he claimed:
Exceptional circumstances drought conditions ... will occur twice as often and with twice the area of droughted parts of Australia included. Now this is a serious revision of the impact of climate change on drought.
You have been misled.
Article with links
What a sad place the CSIRO, once Australia's leading science agency, has come to.
It's hard to take things like this seriously when there is that very casual, "Oops" attitude. People in a position of influence or authority need to be much more careful in their statements. Unfortunately, I see that same attitude in one of our presidential candidates, Obama. It seems that whenever he makes a mistake, it that same attitude, which is rather frightening for someone seeking the presidency.
ReplyDeleteThat was a policy brought in under the previous government. It's a pity that scientists are so much under the thumb of bureaucrats and politicians. On the other hand, when you look at what the CSIRO has been putting out it makes you wonder if any real science is actually being done in the Climate Division.There was a thing on the news last night about a study into the effect of music on emotions. Guess what? There is a correlation! Who'd have thought it? We've known about that for centuries! It's been used and misused by worship leaders, politicians, psychologists and teachers. When they described the actual project it was nothing more than a literature survey- no new scientific research just a summary of other people's research. That used to be called a grant application not a study!
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately CSIRO are censoring all comment relating to climate change; none of their scientists can speak or release writings without having it approved.
ReplyDeleteLois, what concerns me is that there isn't even an "Oops". The people who make these outrageous claims are never held to account.Tim Flannery a previous Australian of the Year makes claims all the time about cities running out of water because of climate change, and all kinds of apocalyptic disasters just around the corner. But when these things don't eventuate he doesn't apologise or correct himself, and most journalists are too timid to confront him.Remember Fonzie in "Happy Days" and the way he couldn't bring himself to say "I was wrong"? It is just so common these days.
ReplyDeleteIt takes courage to admit you are wrong, just as it takes courage to tell the truth as opposed to a lie and I really think we are living in a world that is becomming more and more cowardly. Remember Shakespeare said something like, the coward dies a thousand deaths, the hero dies but one. Telling the truth or admitting you're wrong is embarassing, but it does have the advantage of giving the person the ability to be honest, making them a better person and in the end, people will have more respect for a person who does that. Well, for what it's worth, that's what I think anyway.
ReplyDeleteI think you're right Lois, sadly.
ReplyDelete